July 11th, Match #13 - Orange County SC @ Monterey Bay FC

There was a time this season where Orange County’s defense was historically bad. In their first 14 games of the season, across all competitions, the team had allowed 28 goals. OC did not care if you were a fellow USL team or a lower league team, they were very generous.

But that same OC defense has now gone three straight matches without conceding a goal. The biggest improvement for the OC back line is that they have greatly limited the number of opposing shots on target. Against El Paso and Wilmer Cabrera (second most goals in USL), OC held El Paso to three shots on goal. Then Orange County held Loudoun and Aboukoura (joint highest goalscorer) to just one shot on goal. Colin Shutler has ranked about league average in his number of saves, so limiting shots on goal has won OC games.

Offensively the team is still quite sporadic. One week they get a full team offensive effort leading to three first half goals, the next they fail to score against 10-men teams. This is still the best stretch of 2025 that OC has worked towards and they have a very good opportunity to jump up the table on a nationally televised game.

THE OPPONENT - MONTEREY BAY FC

Year 4 now for Monterey Bay and they are still looking for the first postseason appearance. What perhaps might be the most annoying part is that Monterey Bay for the past two seasons now have gotten off to good starts. This will already be the third competitive matchup between these two teams with Monterey having won the game in OC as well as the USL Cup game. They had dismantled OC 3-0 in the first matchup but since then the positive results have gotten fewer and fewer. To begin they have lost their last three league games and have only scored once in that span. They have five wins all year and four of those came within the first six weeks of the season. We are now in week 19 of the season. In fact in the last eight games, their five points earned is worse in the USL. This is a team that is sputtering.

Monterey Bay has had some success in the USL Cup and going into the last matchday of the group has a real chance of advancing. When Monterey Bay travels to Lancaster later in the month they will need to win and score about 2-3 goals in that game. Until then though, MBFC have work to do in the regular season or face missing the postseason for a fourth straight season.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Monterey Bay’s leading goal scorer is Ilijah Paul Gindiri who has scored just four goals but that is just one back from his career best in a season. Gindiri who goes by Ilijah Paul has spent time with a handful of teams in MLSNP as well as overseas but makes Monterey Bay his first USL Championship team. Monterey Bay does not have a true goal scorer quite yet with a handful of players with 3 goals but Gindiri at only 22 years of age will be the one to watch for Orange County’s defense.

On the orange side of things, the newest academy player to make his impact on the senior team is that of outside back Nicola Ciotta. At 18 years of age, Nicola Ciotta made his professional debut the last time that these two teams played. If Ciotta finds the pitch then it will be his sixth consecutive appearance for Orange County. He has done a respectable job at the right back position against USL level forwards. Ciotta to our knowledge has only been with the OCSC Academy during his professional career.

PREDICTED STARTING XI

Last week at Loudoun only saw Kyle Scott and Tristan Trager miss the match due to injury. Orange County has been quite healthy for the most part and will look to capitalize while everyone is available. We have two predicted lineups to get to.

Keith’s lineup will continue the trend from Loudoun with Ciotta in at right back. Christ Hegardt who is quietly in the top 10 of USL for chances created will start at midfield alongside Stephen Kelly. As such the rest of the lineup is pretty straight forward.

As for myself I have only replaced Kelly with Partida but have kept the remaining facets the same. The midfield has been the biggest question mark all season and we have seen a few different variations. I do want to see Chris Hegardt have a bigger role moving forward.

THE MATCH UP

Ninth all-time match up between the two clubs, and already the third time in 2025. Monterey Bay have already won the first two games of 2025 and will desperately need a third win over OC to keep pace with the rest of the West. Orange County on the other hand have clawed their way up the table and find themselves just on the edge of the playoff line. The Western Conference has been a bloodbath all year with only 10 points separating the first and last place teams. OC, for their own sake, are only one point under Las Vegas and the playoff line. Orange County is on a three game unbeaten run across all competitions and have three consecutive clean sheets in the same span.

WHAT TO KNOW

Game - @ Monterey Bay FC (USL Championship)

When - July 11th, 6:00 PM PST

Where - Cardinale Stadium (Seaside, CA)

OCSC Form - DWWLL

MBFC Form - LLLLW

All-Time Series - 3-1-4 (8 Games)

TV - ESPN2