The Ultimatum Game
The Lament for Icarus by Herbert James Draper
To say that the 2026 Orange County SC regular season was chaotic and filled with the unexpected would be the best way to describe it. This is no big secret or anything that incisive. I am in no way a soccer genius for stating the obvious. Orange County SC perhaps flew too close to the sun with nearly every result going their way. They perhaps earned wins in games where they were outplayed or managed to scrap goals to earn draws. They were scoring goals at a rate that was in no way sustainable for an entire season with a roster that while looking good at times had many holes on paper. It looked as if OC were going toe to toe with the rest of the league and that this would be another successful season with a deep playoff run. I have stated numerous times what is wrong with the roster and why the team does not look good. I have beaten that dead horse for the last 5 games now and all I can do now is watch it with the rest of you guys.
But if I think with my heart instead of my brain then I see the season finale as really a chance for my favorite team in the whole world to make the postseason. Yes even after what has easily been the worst stretch of OC soccer in the modern era, OC still controls their own destiny. The simplest path for Orange County to continue their consecutive postseason appearances is if they win against San Antonio FC. There are a handful of other scenarios at play as well but that is the one that everyone can understand. OC wins and they are in. It takes a lot for a team in the USL to miss the postseason. In a league with roughly 23-25 teams every year, 16 total teams make the playoffs. That means roughly only 34 percent of teams do not make it. For reference, in the modern era of OCSC which begins in 2018 the Orange & Black have only missed the playoffs twice; and one of those years was the COVID season. This is simply not a team that misses the postseason but here we find ourselves.
Even adding more drama to the mix is the fact that Orange County’s opponent on Saturday is in the exact same situation.
THE OPPONENT - SAN ANTONIO FC
San Antonio FC have it just a bit better at the moment than OC do in that a win is enough for them to clinch a postseason berth. San Antonio is not 7th in the West because they are losing but more so because they have been a difficult team to take 3 points from. San Antonio’s 12 draws this season are tied for the most in the Western Conference. Even more indicative of this is San Antonio games in the last couple of weeks have been defensive slug fests. In the last 6 games, San Antonio have conceded only 3 goals which is a very good mark. Unfortunately in that same span the offense has only scored 2 goals. That is a goal every 3 games. While OC games have been frustratingly chaotic, San Antonio has been frustratingly boring for a team who still needs things to happen for them to make the postseason. These teams could not be more different but they end up in the same position on the table regardless.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
San Antonio do not have a standout goal scorer this season with their team leader being a three way tie of players with just five goals on the season. So it would make sense that I would either talk about a defender but former OC midfielder Christian Sorto has found his way to San Antonio FC. It is crazy to think that Sorto has already played on 6 different USL Championship teams to this point with OC being in that mix. His 23 appearances this season have seen him score 3 goals and add on a helper. This is interesting because with San Antonio this season Sorto has mainly been used as a center forward when he is on the pitch.
On the orange side of things, Alex Rando with his expected start on Saturday will become just one of three goalkeepers in 2026 who will have played in every minute of the regular season. It has been 29/29 for starts for Rando in 2026 who in those starts has come up with 7 clean sheets. But perhaps due to the high number of starts means that Alex Rando is third in the USL in total saves with 96 registered on the season. Only Kristopher Shakes of New Mexico and Jassem Koleilat of Birmingham have more. Alex Rando, like the team overall, has had a bit of an up and down season. He definitely has the capability to make some big stops which is the type of keeper that he is and his mistakes have been somewhat limited in the back recently. Alex Rando should be expected to play a big part on Saturday where he will likely need to keep San Antonio out of the net entirely if OC are to win.
PREDICTED STARTING XI
Exact same lineup from last week because this is almost like a wildcard game of sorts. If Garrison Tubbs does return then all the better. Yaniv Bazini scored the only goal last week to give him double digit goals for the season. Ousmane Sylla will want to rebound after last weeks game and San Antonio who have been good in the defensive midfield will have their hands full with him.
THE MATCHUP
The simple scenario is that whoever wins the game will clinch a postseason berth as a lower seed. However there are other less likely things that can happen as well. If Orange County were to draw then they cannot have either Phoenix or Oakland win their games. If OC were to really make my blood boil and lose then both Phoenix and Oakland would have to lose their games. Phoenix will end their season against Lexington SC who have already clinched a high playoff berth. Similar story for Oakland who will travel to Sacramento and face a team who have also clinched a postseason berth. Both of Phoenix’s and Oakland’s games are at 7 pm respectively so OC’s fate if they do not win today will be at the hands of both those teams who will be determined to make the postseason as well.
WHAT TO KNOW
Game - @ San Antonio FC (USL Championship)
When - October 25th, 5:30 PM PST
Where - Toyota Field (San Antonio, TX)
OCSC Form - LLLWL
SAFC Form - DDLDD
All-Time Series - 8-5-5 (18 Games)
TV - ESPN+