Spooky Soccer Season
Orange County SC and the month of October go together more than you may think it does. The orange and black in the month of October have statistically been a very good team over the seasons characterized by plenty of late-season surges and deep postseason runs. If you are a USL team, OCSC was not the team that you wanted to face in a late regular season game. But at some point Orange County have to remember the kind of team they can be when it comes to finishing out the season. Orange County’s postseason hopes will likely come down to the final game of the season just as it did last season when Orange County needed a regular season finale win just to sneak in as the 7th seed.
Before Saturday, Orange County are 7th in the West with only a 3 point cushion over 9th place Las Vegas. With only three games left in the regular season and only one coming at home every game will be important just to scrape points from. Looking at the overall schedule, OC will need at least one more win to ensure things do not get stupid at the end of the season. Assuming that other teams do not falter as well then the most likely scenario is that Orange County will get into the postseason as a low seed meaning a guaranteed road game in the conference quarterfinals. I cannot specify how bad it would look if OC were to miss the postseason with the kind of roster they have. Every team deals with injuries and in a league where the majority of teams make the postseason a team of Orange County’s pedigree the postseason should be the bare minimum. If they are not able to do it then some people will have plenty of questions to answer.
I mentioned that Orange County can likely get away with just needing one more win to clinch their fourth consecutive postseason appearance. However do not be surprised if that one win comes in any of the other two games remaining. Orange County SC will head to West Texas and take on first place El Paso Locomotive for the second time this season.
THE OPPONENT - EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE FC
Orange County SC had one of their more impressive wins back in late June against this same El Paso side via a 2-0 scoreline. That was a game where OC took care of a then mid-table El Paso and it looked as if it would be the status quo for the remainder of the season. But OC fans will know that was the last ray of light for Danny Stone as it was actually his last victory as the coach of Orange County. After that game began the awful stretch of not being able to win games. While Orange County were going through that, El Paso spent their time winning everything. After the 0-2 loss to Orange County, El Paso would win 8 consecutive games and shoot their way up to first in the Western Conference and that is where they remain with three games left. They beat plenty of solid teams in that span too including Louisville, Pittsburgh and San Antonio. This would be the most dangerous team to watch going into the playoffs but they have hit a bit of a road bump along the way. They are winless now in their last two games and were outright defeated their last time out to a red hot Lexington SC side.
El Paso cannot coast their way to the end either with their sights set on the number one seed in the West. They only have a one point cushion over New Mexico United with Sacramento and the aforementioned Lexington not being that far behind either. To make things even more dramatic, after El Paso plays Orange County they will end their regular season with games against both Sacramento AND New Mexico. The USL schedule makers should pat themselves on the back for that one. The underlying stats for El Paso are not the most impressive either with their defense being league average. But during that 8 game streak they got a very good balance from both sides of the ball. The offense is actually above league average but not at the rate like some other contenders are. El Paso have been trying to go on a deep postseason run which they have not done since their inaugural season back in 2019.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
When I cover members of the opposing team I obviously attempt to go over the main characters. If OC plays a team multiple times in a season then I will try my best to cover multiple players. But once in a while there comes a player who is so important to a team that has stayed that way for nearly the entire season. So when OC first played El Paso the biggest player to watch was forward Rubio Rubin and the second time that OC played El Paso it was still Rubio Rubin. Since OC and El Paso first met, Rubin has continued his golden boot campaign now leading the race with his 16 goals scored. Just in the last five games he has scored 6 goals and that includes missing two of those games due to international duty. So yeah there is going to be an exception made because Rubio Rubin has been a very crucial part to El Paso’s success. Remember El Paso have actually been winless in their last two games and coincidentally it is when Rubin was not available.
On the orange side of things, the center back group has recently been gutted. It has to be made clear that next season the defense will need some infusions because Garrison Tubbs, who has been quite serviceable, is still only a loan in for us. He has also been sidelined with an injury the last couple of games now. His counterpart Tom Brewitt is going to miss this game due to his red car he picked up last week against Monterey Bay which suspends him for the El Paso game too. So the only other true centerback that OC has is Tyson Espy. This season has been a definitive trial by fire season for the 17-year old Irvine native. There have been some lows for Espy but one thing that I do think goes unnoticed a bit but this is a defender who does have an offensive touch in him. In 16 regular season appearances it is Espy who has one goal and one assist which is more than some forwards. A set piece threat in the box, Espy is still very young and can only get better on the defensive side. This game will be probably the biggest test of his when he will be expected to lead a backline for perhaps the first time in the regular season as the main last man. He will likely have Nico Benalcazar on his side if Tubbs does not return.
PREDICTED STARTING XI
So yes the biggest news for this week is going to be the planned absence of Tom Brewitt due to his suspension. Right when it looked as if OC were finally getting their midfield and forward core healthy, the defense takes a hit.
Tyson Espy this is your game to shine. I will also be surprised if Yaniv Bazini does not get the start considering this is the team leader in goals scored. Mouhamadou War is the odd man out but really the triangle of him, Palomino and Kelly could be the ones with the most up in the air. Alex Rando has the opportunity to start each and every regular season game which I will have to check and see if that has ever happened for Orange County.
THE MATCHUP
Fortunately for Orange County this is not a must win game. Of course a win or draw would really be a welcome sight when you consider that every point matters from this point on. If there were any team that OC perfectly matches up with it would have to be El Paso. With 15 games played across all competitions these teams are a perfect 5-5-5 against one another. It does not really matter who is currently better at the moment with upsets on both ends as well. If Orange County were to be defeated then the one thing that cannot happen is Las Vegas beating Phoenix as that would put both teams in a tie with Las Vegas holding the tiebreaker. If Oakland are serious about making the postseason they need to beat San Antonio with that game also taking on a very important moniker. This is one of two remaining away games for Orange County SC who in all the craziness of the season, Orange County SC have only lost two games away all season. They have been an average to okay team on the road and they will need to replicate a few more if they are to make the postseason.
WHAT TO KNOW
Game - @ El Paso Locomotive FC (USL Championship)
When - October 10th, 6:00 PM PST
Where - Southwest University Park (El Paso, TX)
OCSC Form - LWLLD
ELP Form - LDWWW
All-Time Series - 5-5-5 (15 Games)
TV - ESPN+