The Hand That Holds The Games
A win against a very good Charleston Battery team would have gone a long, long way. It looked like it was going to go that way too after Ethan Zubak scored his second of the night to make it 2-0 Orange County. Then Charleston scored two goals in the last 7 minutes of regular time off two set pieces and showed just how difficult it is to beat them.
The biggest takeaway from the night for me is the fact that the Orange County team that plays at home is exponentially better than the OC team who plays on the road. The top two teams in the Western Conference have played in Orange County on three separate occasions across two different competitions and OC are 3-0 in those three games. This includes OC who in the regular season and in the USL Cup have knocked off second place Sacramento Republic twice. This includes Sacramento’s lone defeat in the USL Cup when a bunch of teenagers won.
This is a rivalry that has seen a number of upsets by both teams and has largely been a very even matchup. In recent memory Orange County have had the better of memories including but not limited to Juan Santana’s heroics in 2023, Colin Shutler’s last minute game-tying goal in 2024 and the aforementioned USL Cup game this season. But Sacramento have a knack for playing well in big games as shown in their deep USL and Open Cup runs of recent memory. This is one of those games in hand that OC has flirted with all season long and they can finally deal with it in the first game of a very crowded October schedule.
THE OPPONENT - SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC FC
When Sacramento has not played Orange County then they have had a very good season which has been a trait of theirs. Sacramento are second in the Western Conference but are trailing after Tulsa who is ahead of them six points. The biggest storyline for this game as far as Sacramento is concerned is one that may not even involve the game in question at all. Sacramento is a good team in tournaments and they will have the chance at winning the first USL-wide Jagermeister Cup on Saturday the 4th. They are taking on Hartford Athletic in that game at home. What this means for Sacramento is that they will likely shift the majority of their focus to Saturday’s game.
Sacramento is coming off a rare loss on Saturday after falling to Monterey Bay. Not scoring goals on the road will truthfully kill any team’s hopes of beating Sacramento who have the best defense in the Western conference by a wide margin with only 20 goals conceded through 25 games played. The defense is so good that it is only one goal worse than Louisville who lead the USL with 19 goals conceded. It is a veteran team with a veteran keeper. The offense is not too shabby either with Sacramento having the same number of goals scored as Orange County. This is a rare instance of OC playing the same team for a third time but OC has swept Sacramento before.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
A team with the second best defense in the USL is likely going to have a goalkeeper with a high number of clean sheets. Sacramento’s Daniel Vitiello has 11 clean sheets which leads the league in that regard. Vitiello is already the clean sheet leader all time for Sacramento and is staying in the capital for the foreseeable future after signing a contract extension earlier this summer. Vitiello is a player who is in the middle of his prime and it shows as he is only the third player in USL Championship history to reach 50 clean sheets. Of course Vitiello has a pretty good defensive lineup in front of him but Vitiello is one of the best USL keepers of all time.
On the orange side of things and similar to last season, Ethan Zubak has started to find his groove again and it cannot have come at a better time. Zubak showed his skill last matchday by picking up his second brace of the season and increasing his goal count to 10 goals already. One website has him already at 11 goals but according to the USL it is 10, not that big of a deal. Whatever may be the case, Zubak has already matched his goal total from last season and still has an entire month to go. The offense has not really been the biggest issue for Orange County but Zubak is starting to become worth every penny.
PREDICTED STARTING XI
The time for experimentation has reached its conclusion. The lineup that we saw last week against Charleston will likely be the lineup going forward. The majority of the Orange & Black SoccerCast agree on that too.
The backline is makeshift and features two players who cannot legally drink yet. There was one noticeable variation between the lineups submitted and that is who gets the start at LDM. If we are going off of Saturday’s lineup then Malik Pinto will get the start but do not be surprised if Kevin Partida returns to the lineup.
THE MATCHUP
Sacramento can clinch a postseason spot with a win on Wednesday. There is little doubt they will miss the postseason but they have the chance to fight for the number one seed in the West. Orange County through the thick of everything still is in control of their own destiny. It is also looking more and more likely that Orange County’s direct competition for the 8th seed in the West is Colorado Springs who through 26 games have earned 31 points. OC has 30 points but in only 24 games. The remaining games in hand include Wednesday night in Sacramento and a Wednesday game at home against San Antonio in mid-October. A loss is not the end of the world but every single point earned on the road will go a long way to making every point earned at home that much more important. Perhaps OC can steal a win from Sacramento who are spending the week preparing for their Jagermeister Final on Saturday. Every remaining team on Orange County’s schedule is currently in the postseason. Every point is that important.
WHAT TO KNOW
Game - @ Sacramento Republic FC (USL Championship)
When - October 1st, 7:30 PM PST
Where - Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)
OCSC Form - DLDLD
SAC Form - LWDWW
All-Time Series - 13-6-11 (30 Matchups)
TV - CBS Sports Network, Paramount+