Things aren’t going well right now.
OCSC needed 3 wins in April to get back on track. Tough, but doable. Instead, they managed just 4 points with a terrible 1-1-3 record.
Game 1 Recap: OCSC 1-1 Draw @ Hartford Athletic
Game 2 Recap: OCSC 0-1 Loss @ El Paso Locomotive FC
Game 3 Recap: OCSC 1-0 Win vs. Indy Eleven
Game 4 Recap: OCSC 1-2 Loss vs. Birmingham Legion
Game 5 Recap: OCSC 1-3 Loss vs. New Mexico United
The team was disjointed and inconsistent most of April from a lack of lineup stability as well as the insistence on deploying the “kick and pray” strategy while attacking. OCSC has lacked an identity up to this point in the season, and if they’re going to have any hope of making a run to the playoffs, they need to find that identity and fast. Defensive miscues and a lack of finishing have put the team in a deep hole. Another month like April, and the playoffs will be all but gone.
Point Targets Update
Unsurprisingly, this table has not gotten any better. If it weren’t for the win against Indy, this chart may have just been highlighted only red. But a win staves off what feels like the inevitable, so we march onward.
Last month, OCSC was one game (3 points) off of my 58 point target. Now, they’re close to three games (9 points) off target, and they now have five fewer games to make up ground. I’m not going to harp on how poorly the team has performed (click the recaps above from our excellent writers for the details). I’m the numbers guy, and the numbers are bad.
The rest of the way, if OCSC wants to make hit the number of points to solidly make it to playoffs, they need to average 2 points a game in order to hit that 58 point target. Based on recent events, this goal may seem lofty, but last time a similar event happened, Orange County went on a winning streak and won a championship. As Orange and Black SoccerCast Producer Andy has said before, “Gotta have the bitter to enjoy the sweet”.
So how does OCSC get to that sweet, sweet playoff berth again? Here’s the roadmap, and it’s gotten bumpy.
The team needs three wins and a draw in May to get back on track. Enough sulking about the past, let’s charge ahead and get some points. Where do they find them?
Matches at a glance
Where can OCSC find 3 wins in April?
Another five game stretch (this time without the Open Cup games sprinkled in). Surely the schedule eases up and there are some clear opportunities to get points, right?
*Looks at schedule*
Ehhhhhhhh.
Game 1 is at home against Southern California neighbors, San Diego Loyal. If you’ll remember (credit to our fantastic writer Nathan for pointing this out), OCSC had gone 2-5-3 in their last 10 matches before Chaplow was brought onboard. The game right after was against Loyal, and the team went on to win the USL Championship. Chaplow was just relieved of his duties after going...2-5-3 in his last 10 matches, and the next match is against Loyal. So, add the second star to the crest is what I’m saying.
All joking aside, San Diego is a tough matchup. They’re near the top of the table in the west, they’ve got a great contingency of traveling supporters, and they have our boy Ronaldo Damus in attack. We have to find a win against a tough opponent somewhere, so might as well start with our Torrey Green friends.
The team takes a trip up north and takes on Oakland for game 2. They’ve currently only got two wins on the season and a negative goal differential. In a month desperate for wins, this is as good of an opportunity as any to nab 3 vital points.
Game 3 looks to be a nightmare as OCSC returns to Irvine to face Sacramento Republic in a midweek clash. Sac Republic is, statistically, the best team in the USL right now. They’ve got a GD of +12 (helped by a 4-0 and 5-0 win in April), and they’ve only allowed 2 goals across 8 league games. They are still in the Open Cup, however, so they’ll have an extra game before playing Orange County. Can OCSC capitalize on a Sacramento team that looks to be unstoppable?
Phoenix. Ah, Phoenix. Game 4 brings the storied franchise to Championship Stadium near the end of the month. Surely the team won’t still be frustrated by a lack of results and have that spill onto the pitch, right? I trust our guys to keep cool heads and hopefully take down a Phoenix team that has fallen from grace. Just two wins on the season and a 0 GD, this is not the same Phoenix as years past. Again, if OCSC is looking for points, this is a manageable opportunity.
The end of the month sends the team across the country to face Miami FC. Miami, similar to the Orange and Black, have just the one win in 2023. They also have five draws, and are a team that Orange County can gain points off of.
If OCSC wants to nab three wins, they are most likely going to happen against Oakland, Phoenix, and Miami. A win against San Diego would be nice for interim coach Morten Karlsen in his debut game, as well as any result against Sacramento. Either would be thrilling, but unlikely given the team’s past performances.
Around the League
Two months in, and here’s what the Western Conference playoff picture looks like.
These numbers have normalized since last month (remember when New Mexico was projected to end with 104 points?), so this is a clearer picture of where things might end up at the end of the season. 58 points would put OCSC in 4th place in the West, which is about where this author was hoping they’d land. So for now, the target remains unchanged.
Life is Pain
With a new manager at the helm, OCSC fans are praying, begging for a turnaround a la 2021. The talent is absolutely there. On paper, this team should be competitive with just about every team in the league. A few breaks here and there, and we’d be having a different conversation. But the fact of the matter is the team has looked mediocre at best through the first two months of the season. They need to turn it around and they need to do it fast. The team has reached a critical point in the season, and with any luck, an improved May will make the next edition of this article a lot more interesting.