Let’s be honest, we always want to win games. Whether it is for league position or bragging rights, a good win puts everyone in a positive mood.
However, one thing is very apparent: preseason is a period where the final result does not matter as much as playing time and getting ready for the regular season. The preseason is rather defined by teams testing out different lineups and formations against mostly local teams both professional and not.
When looking at the preseasons of other sports and leagues, it becomes apparent that the answer to the titular question is that these results do not matter one bit to how successful a team will be. The NFL’s Baltimore Ravens have won 23 consecutive preseason games to mixed playoff success. The 2008 Detroit Lions went 4-0 in their preseason, only to go a staggering 0-16 in the regular season. This year the Oklahoma City Thunder of the NBA went 5-1 in their preseason only to sit 13th in the Western Conference. Across multiple sports, the preseason has not been a good indicator of how well a team will do.
USL preseasons, really soccer overall, are unique in that schedules are created by the teams themselves. With the USL specifically, fans can expect to face a mixture of local college sides along with some USL geographical rivals and the occasional MLS team. However the main question being asked is does preseason success really matter to how a team will fare during the regular season and playoffs?
Looking back at the conference champions from the past four USL seasons reveals much about what successful sides did well or did not do well during their warm-up games. Since 2019, there have been six different conference champions across both the West and East. These six teams are shown in the table below.
From the Eastern Conference, Tampa Bay and Louisville have dominated the conference and each have made two appearances in the USL final. Meanwhile the Western Conference has seen a different club represent (and win) all four years of interest. Much of the preseason results that were found were either from given data or teams respective social medias.
So how did championship-contending teams fare during their preseason games?
Just okay.
During each team's season in which they made an appearance in the USL final, the eight squads went a combined 22-19-8 against all preseason opponents.
While that number might not seem all that bad at face value, seeing which types of teams make up that stat sheds more light. Against fellow USL squads, the “successful” teams were a miserable 2-8-3. In the past four seasons, a conference champion beat a USL side only twice during their respective preseason.. Those two occurrences both were courtesy of Louisville City FC who in 2019 defeated Memphis 901 FC and in 2022 when they beat El Paso Locomotive FC. Where a good majority of wins do come from are the matchups against college sides. That record is a much more respectable 10-0-2. Other notable numbers include USL conference champions going 6-11 against MLS sides as well as occasional matchups against teams from USL League One, League Two, MLS Next Pro, and semi-pro squads often going in favor of the USL Championship team.
During Orange County SC’s 2021 preseason in which they won the USL Championship, they went 4-1-1. However all four of those wins came against either college teams or a USL League Two side in Ventura County Fusion. OC failed to defeat LA Galaxy II or Colorado Springs Switchbacks in their warm up games. Last season San Antonio FC lost to El Paso 0-7, yet hoisted their first title that following regular season.
Now it is proven that the elite teams of USL often have mediocre preseasons, but what about the poor USL sides? This point was a bit harder to prove as data for the last place teams preseasons was much less readily available than those of the stronger sides. This makes sense as most of the time the last place was an MLS B team, but sometimes USL independent sides also have abysmal campaigns. The 2019 preseason is a perfect example of this. In 2019 the two worst teams in the USL were the Swope Park Rangers and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC.
From the Eastern Conference, the Rangers finished with 26 points coming off six wins, while their partners in mediocrity the Switchbacks finished one point better on seven victories. However combining both of their preseasons generates a combined record of 7-1-2. Swope Park finished their preseason at 3-1-0 while Colorado Springs went undefeated at 4-0-2. The Switchbacks even defeated 2019 playoff side Reno 1868 by a convincing 4-1 victory.
While the data might not be as prominent for the lower-table teams, the consensus still remains that the preseason does not matter towards how a team does during the regular season or playoffs.
After OC drew Cal State Fullerton 3-3 on Wednesday March 1, that only leaves OCSC with only two remaining games in their 2023 preseason. Those are both a part of a Saturday March 4 doubleheader as the Boys in Orange take on Los Angeles FC 2 and UC Santa Barbara. While OCSC may be the favored team in both matchups, it is important to remember that these results are rarely indications of how good or bad a season will be.